BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in New York

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in New York has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in New York. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in New York is projected to rise about 135% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+135%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in New York is projected to rise about 135% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.004.2
20272.00.004.2
20282.00.004.1
20292.00.004.1
20301.90.004.1

Mallard Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Mallard in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Huntington3120231967
Highland2320221968
West Bangor1719981998
Warwick 21520131976
Hope Falls1119951972
Purdy1020161982
Waddington919981983
Warwick819731972
Romulus820001972
Mckeever820181989
Newcomb820221983
Parishville820251973
Cayuga720161971
Clinton720111973
Jones Beach620131966
Branchport620241969
West Seneca620041967
Centerville620151969
Hopkinton620192006
Oxford 2620241978
St Regis Fls620161980
Macdougall520251971
Trumansburg520241969
Phillips Cr520021967
N Victory 2520131979

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.