BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Nebraska has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+26%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Nebraska is projected to rise about 105% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 0.07–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+105%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Nebraska is projected to rise about 105% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 0.07–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.20.008.4
20264.20.008.4
20274.20.018.4
20284.20.048.5
20294.30.078.5

Mallard Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Mallard in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paxton1720161967
Hampton1420192018
Bartlett1319751967
Wheeler Co1320241978
Kennedy1220241976
Piester Lake1120241967
Champion1120182018
Berea1020191980
Richland820241969
Crookston820232018
Nenzel720242018
Kenesaw620241967
Pine Ridge620241999
Sargent620242021
Stratton520241990
Gretna520181982
Almeria520001969
Crescent Lk520171980
Swan Lake420231977
Gordon420241975
Bassett420242018
Winside 2420132007
Agate 2320232002
Table320241973
Benkelman320181986

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.