BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Nebraska has increased: up 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Nebraska. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Nebraska is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±125.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Nebraska is projected to rise about 92% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±125.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.00.008.2
20274.10.008.3
20284.10.008.3
20294.10.008.3
20304.20.008.4

Mallard Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Mallard in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Piester Lake3620251967
Paxton1720161967
Wheeler Co1620251978
Hampton1420192018
Bartlett1319751967
Champion1120182018
Table820251973
Crescent Lk820251980
Crookston820232018
Nenzel720252018
Richland620251969
Stratton520241990
Gretna520181982
Almeria520001969
Swan Lake520251977
Kennedy520251976
Gordon520251975
Arthur520251996
Sargent520252021
Petersburg420251981
Bassett420242018
Winside 2420132007
Agate 2320232002
Surprise320251977
Benkelman320181986

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.