BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Missouri

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Missouri has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-28%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Missouri is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Missouri is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.43
20260.170.000.43
20270.170.000.43
20280.170.000.43
20290.170.000.43

Mallard Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Mallard in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trenton1120212009
Pineville720041988
Kahoka2720242014
Miller520182015
Cp Girardeau320191978
Reeds320061994
Hayden320082008
Auburn320242022
Diamond320152015
Hayti320192016
Danville220082006
House Springs220212021
Rensselaer220211983
Warren219831977
Rockingham219911983
Stet219951972
Blodgett220242018
Bolckow219771974
Barks220212021
Osage Beach220012001
Kirksville220051997
Graniteville219961996
Frankford220221990
Deventer120221971
Pulaski120212021

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.