BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Tennessee has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has fallen sharply in Tennessee: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±368.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±368.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±368.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.360.001.0
20250.360.001.0
20260.360.001.0
20270.360.001.0
20280.360.001.0

Mallard Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Mallard in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Signal Mtn1120141989
Allens Brdge1020231999
Pawpaw620091971
Glen620191983
Campbellsville520061988
Pawpaw 2420192013
Trenton320012001
Humboldt320102000
Walland319841984
Jones Gap220122012
Whiteville220212008
Big Sandy220131978
Belotes Bend220051987
White House220021983
Tullahoma219971997
Oliver Spgs220042004
Fish Springs220022002
Tiptonville120221966
Moscow120081976
Tibbs120021998
Silerton120012001
Cornpone120101994
Petersburg120112001
Red Bank119771977
Jasper119921989

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.