BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Tennessee has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968
28Routes In State
53Years

Notable Mallard Trends in Tennessee

long arc declinecomputed index

Mallard has fallen sharply in Tennessee: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.36 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±368.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2028
0.36Projected 2028 index
0.00–1.095% range
±368.8%Backtest error
19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.360.001.0
20250.360.001.0
20260.360.001.0
20270.360.001.0
20280.360.001.0

Mallard Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Mallard in Tennessee.
Signal Mtn1120141989
Allens Brdge1020231999
Pawpaw620091971
Glen620191983
Campbellsville520061988
Pawpaw 2420192013
Trenton320012001
Humboldt320102000
Walland319841984
Jones Gap220122012
Whiteville220212008
Big Sandy220131978
Belotes Bend220051987
White House220021983
Tullahoma219971997
Oliver Spgs220042004
Fish Springs220022002
Tiptonville120221966
Moscow120081976
Tibbs120021998
Silerton120012001
Cornpone120101994
Petersburg120112001
Red Bank119771977
Jasper119921989

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.