BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+3%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 0.98 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.03–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 81% by 2030 — from 0.98 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.03–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.073.5
20271.80.063.5
20281.80.053.5
20291.80.043.5
20301.80.033.5

Mallard Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Mallard in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Akron4219971989
Aspers3119891968
Ravensburg1719781970
Brunnerville1720091969
Ryde1620051969
Rosecrans1520251969
Doubling Gap1119771966
Schaefferstown 21120252002
Odin1020172008
Drehersville1019991966
Brunnerville 21020252010
Pocono Summit920251973
Bow Bridge820211974
Greentown820141969
Mount Joy820251978
N Pine Grove620191989
Arnot620241977
Ephrata619881969
Slippery Rk519931975
Plesant Grov520241982
Shelocta520241984
Lovelton520212000
Harmonsburg420251968
Ridgway420111991
Williamsburg420251988

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.