BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Pennsylvania has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.11–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.11–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.153.6
20261.90.143.6
20271.90.133.6
20281.90.123.6
20291.80.113.6

Mallard Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Mallard in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Akron4219971989
Aspers3119891968
Brunnerville 23120212010
Ravensburg1719781970
Brunnerville1720091969
Ryde1620051969
Wild Creek1220241989
Doubling Gap1119771966
Odin1020172008
Drehersville1019991966
Schaefferstown 2920242002
Rosecrans820241969
Bow Bridge820211974
Greentown820141969
Williamsburg820241988
Martinsburg720231970
Middletown720241974
Leola720241998
N Pine Grove620191989
Arnot620241977
Ephrata619881969
Slippery Rk519931975
Plesant Grov520241982
Kittanning520241991
Shelocta520241984

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.