BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Kentucky has surged: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+133%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Kentucky: up 133% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Mallard Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Kentucky is projected to rise about 475% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+475%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±248.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Kentucky is projected to rise about 475% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.510.001.1
20270.510.001.1
20280.520.001.1
20290.520.001.1
20300.520.001.1

Mallard Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Mallard in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar Grove2020231990
Mckee620241991
Hodgenville620031983
Shiloh520081996
Sewell Shop420041967
Canton320102002
Dixie319731973
Plum320162011
Sulphur Lick220222022
Bardwell220001988
Pleasurevill220211981
Million219761976
Hustonville220192019
Merrimac219911991
Drakesboro219921992
Shelbyville219781977
Buena Vista220011987
Bays Fork220191999
Bardwell 2220072006
Hodgenville 2220182010
Brownsville120222022
Cumberlnd Gp120082008
Keysburg120251975
Riverqueen120132013
Hegira119951995

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.