BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-69%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Mallard Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in New Mexico is projected to rise about 126% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+126%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in New Mexico is projected to rise about 126% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.001.3
20260.500.001.3
20270.500.001.3
20280.490.001.3
20290.490.001.3

Mallard Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Mallard in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San Antonio1619751974
Laborcita 2920222022
Fence Lake819911991
Clovis820162016
Ojo Sarco620211988
Wagon Mound419781973
Angel Fire 2420242005
Maxwell420221996
Angel Fire420021992
Laborcita420191992
Crownpoint319941978
Gallinas320211992
Hobbs320161998
Farmington219871979
Cebolla219941981
Farley220101982
Capulin219941993
Valencia219971970
Caprock220211994
Dulce220242000
Cloudcroft220241989
Stinking Lk.219971992
Pastura219991997
Capitan Mtn.220142014
Bitter Lake220211995

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.