BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-67%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Mallard Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Alaska is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Alaska is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.510.001.8
20260.470.001.8
20270.440.001.7
20280.410.001.7
20290.370.001.7

Mallard Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Mallard in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear Creek3019911987
Cottonwood2319881987
Homer1519821977
Haines1020241991
Porcupine R.1020011993
Dillingham920192008
Delta820242019
Nebesna719751975
Cordova720241983
Nicholai Sl720191998
Kachemak720241997
Seward619921982
Skagway620241999
Kanuti Lake620242006
Cold Bay520241993
L Salcha420151985
Chiniak420241985
Gweek River420021995
Toklat320131997
Chena Hot Spring 2320222002
Kodiak 2320241985
Goodnews Bay320051999
Unalakleet River320232010
Mud River320241993
Murphy Dome320051999

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.