BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Alaska

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-67%Since 1978
99Routes In State
45Years

Notable Mallard Trends in Alaska

long arc declinecomputed index

Mallard has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Mallard Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Alaska is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2029
0.37Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.795% range
±53.8%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.510.001.8
20260.470.001.8
20270.440.001.7
20280.410.001.7
20290.370.001.7

Mallard Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Mallard in Alaska.
Bear Creek3019911987
Cottonwood2319881987
Homer1519821977
Haines1020241991
Porcupine R.1020011993
Dillingham920192008
Delta820242019
Nebesna719751975
Cordova720241983
Nicholai Sl720191998
Kachemak720241997
Seward619921982
Skagway620241999
Kanuti Lake620242006
Cold Bay520241993
L Salcha420151985
Chiniak420241985
Gweek River420021995
Toklat320131997
Chena Hot Spring 2320222002
Kodiak 2320241985
Goodnews Bay320051999
Unalakleet River320232010
Mud River320241993
Murphy Dome320051999

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.