BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Alabama

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Alabama has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+91%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Alabama: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Alabama is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±241.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±241.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Alabama is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±241.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.71
20260.290.000.71
20270.290.000.71
20280.290.000.71
20290.290.000.71

Mallard Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Mallard in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valhermoso Spgs820081967
Riverside820131999
Pine Grove620241968
Mt. Gilead620062006
St. Elmo620072006
Guntersville520171988
Epes520241986
Helicon520152015
Wallsboro420031998
Calebee420092009
Wheeler Dam420231993
Brooksville420051994
Choccolocco420172000
Birmingham319951981
Bay Minette320102006
Triana320081999
Trade219981998
Sunny Eve220211992
Elberta220172017
Sprague220081989
Kymulga220152015
Cottonton220041972
Rock Chapel220142012
Oneonta220112011
St Florian119941968

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.