BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Mississippi has surged: up 867% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+867%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Mississippi: up 867% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Mallard Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Mississippi is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.36–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Mississippi is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.36–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.910.291.5
20260.930.311.6
20270.950.331.6
20280.970.341.6
20290.990.361.6

Mallard Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Mallard in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Macon2720241997
Corinth1520122012
Commerce819881988
Grenada Lake720162016
Okatibbee L.419951995
Isola320211976
Fayette319911990
Forest319931993
Tallahatchie219961996
Lake220071981
Cybur220121989
Waynesboro220012001
Water Valley220152015
Olive Branch 2220212017
Embry220042004
Dundee120191970
Benton120012001
Trace Madison120162016
Trace Lee120172017
Tupelo120041999
Dahomey Nwr120242017
Aberdeen120192017
Shelby120242009

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.