BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Idaho

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Idaho has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+28%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Idaho. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Idaho is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Idaho is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–7.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.00.007.6
20263.00.007.6
20272.90.007.5
20282.90.007.5
20292.90.007.5

Mallard Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Mallard in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Twin Buttes5419991999
Naples5020241972
Cedar Hill4020241989
Leadore3520241975
Pasadena Val2420161987
Cascade1819841969
Blackft Res920181984
Tractor Flat920222022
Cabarton920221985
Cobalt720062006
Nezperce619991985
Bates620231988
Avery520182018
Picabo520171988
Mud Lake520231988
Pierce419981990
Mora420212018
Sawtooth Cty420101990
Mivoden320131977
Baker320241974
Burgdorf320141988
Iron Springs320241988
Featherville320161990
Daniels Res320191988
Nezperce Nf319991992

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.