BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Michigan has surged: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+119%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Michigan: up 119% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Michigan is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+83%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Michigan is projected to rise about 83% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.005.4
20262.60.005.4
20272.60.005.4
20282.70.005.4
20292.70.005.4

Mallard Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Mallard in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St Charles3120191971
Traverse Cty2519921974
Galesburg2120241967
Pleasant Valley 21720242005
Pettysville1119791969
Drayton Plns1019871973
Adrian920171966
Cathro920161967
Pleasant Val819971968
Maple Rapids820211989
Scottville720181973
Hubbard Lake719961975
Brocky Lake520172004
Big Blue Lk520241985
Mottville520191970
Brush Creek520161984
Sand Lake520211979
Deckerville520181981
Mayfield520222001
Herman420221983
Lake City420061970
Belding420031983
Beaver Lake419931976
S Lyons419921967
Chippewa Lk.420241992

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.