BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Florida

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Florida has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

-63%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has fallen sharply in Florida: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Mallard Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Florida is projected to rise about 272% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±447.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+272%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±447.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Florida is projected to rise about 272% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±447.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.000.43
20270.200.000.43
20280.200.000.44
20290.200.000.44
20300.200.000.44

Mallard Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Mallard in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Gr620072005
Doctors Inlet 2420182008
Broad Branch320152015
Dale Mabry319851985
Myakka Head320092009
Polk City320132013
Vero Beach319971997
Kissimmee320222001
Sandy319981998
Bristol320102008
Miccosukee219971997
Wildernes Pk220132004
Childs220041997
Ft Lonesome220152015
Doctor Inlet220072006
Pleasant Grove 2220252012
Santa Rosa220011999
Miller Xrds220112011
Callahan220181999
Myakka Head 2220212021
Ft Waltn Bch120111999
Belmont120182018
Hilliard119661966
San Antonio120251989
Ridge Harbor120002000

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.