BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Nevada

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Nevada has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+170%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Nevada: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mallard Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Nevada is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.52–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±164.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Nevada is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 0.52–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±164.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.80.367.2
20273.80.407.2
20283.90.447.3
20293.90.487.3
20303.90.527.3

Mallard Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Mallard in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cortez3420251968
Dobbin Creek2020161971
Bald Mtn.1820251992
Virgin Creek1420181995
Gardnerville1120121992
Vya1019731972
Sheldon Nwr820071992
Nixon720241974
Gardnerville 2620252013
Carson River520052001
Dinner Sta419911968
Humboldt Nf320152007
Illipah320172000
Majors Place320251969
Fallon320251992
Calico Spr219731973
Ranchogrande220171991
Sand Pass220241993
Rye Patch219871987
Fish Creek220211997
Walker Can219731972
Beatty220252009
Austin220182013
Piute Mdws120252025
Midas120241991

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.