BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Indiana

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Indiana has surged: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+183%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Indiana: up 183% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Indiana is projected to rise about 107% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.23–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+107%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±141.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Indiana is projected to rise about 107% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.23–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.20.184.2
20272.20.194.2
20282.20.204.2
20292.20.214.3
20302.20.234.3

Mallard Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Mallard in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Knox1820191981
Decatur1720251999
Muncie1619971984
Gary1519991980
Packertown1420041969
Columbia Cty1020241981
Montpelier920192019
Plainfield919991999
Kankakee Sands720252000
Ellis620221966
Fowler620191977
W Lafayette620191982
Friendswood620241990
Hebron520221967
South Bend519911966
Tipton519921979
Witts Station520252000
Packertown 2520252005
Portage 2420252005
Laporte320232000
Kewanna220171981
Galveston220221981
Thorntown220251982
Middletown220251977
Wabash220231981

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.