BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in West Virginia has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+14%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in West Virginia. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.63 (95% range 0.09–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±491.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±491.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.63 (95% range 0.09–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±491.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.610.061.2
20270.610.071.2
20280.620.071.2
20290.630.081.2
20300.630.091.2

Mallard Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Mallard in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smithfield1019961993
Mcdonald720102001
Clendenin620171996
Henderson620232018
Clear Creek420241995
Pt Pleasant420222016
Valley Head420061993
Hanover320221995
Olcott320081977
Clinton319941978
Ruthbelle320231977
Hix220102008
Smoot220031995
Pedro220181997
Stollings220072002
Nicut220231995
Bemis220022002
Cedarville220191986
Denmar220212009
Dailey220231983
Rockport220092006
Josephs Mill220172000
Meadowville220172004
Mt Storm219731973
Yellow Spg220111972

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.