BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in West Virginia has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+78%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in West Virginia: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Mallard Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in West Virginia is projected to rise about 401% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.15–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+401%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.68Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±208%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in West Virginia is projected to rise about 401% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.15–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.121.2
20260.650.121.2
20270.660.131.2
20280.670.141.2
20290.680.151.2

Mallard Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Mallard in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smithfield1019961993
Mcdonald720102001
Clendenin620171996
Henderson620232018
Clear Creek420241995
Pt Pleasant420222016
Meadland420191998
Valley Head420061993
Bramwell320221987
Hanover320221995
Olcott320081977
Clinton319941978
Ruthbelle320231977
Hix220102008
Smoot220031995
Pedro220181997
Stollings220072002
Nicut220231995
Bemis220022002
Cedarville220191986
Denmar220212009
Dailey220231983
Rockport220092006
Josephs Mill220172000
Meadowville220172004

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.