BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Oklahoma has surged: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+152%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Oklahoma: up 152% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Mallard Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 155% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±210.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+155%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±210.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 155% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±210.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.001.6
20260.530.001.6
20270.530.001.6
20280.530.001.6
20290.530.001.6

Mallard Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Mallard in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Welch1520081991
Mcalester1219831983
Erick720211983
Cookietown519971990
Goodwater520001992
Hooker520241992
Randlett320041988
Douglas320181983
Hardesty320071970
Pocola319921992
Cashion320171994
Hunter320161992
Keyes320231996
Reed220151989
Indianola220042003
Holdenville219861986
Beggs220162008
Noble220212018
Grimes220052000
Wakita220151973
Beaver220181979
Cooperton220212014
Wainwright219941992
Sickles220061993
Keetonville220222022

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.