BirdAnalyst
Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Connecticut has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-16%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Connecticut is projected to rise about 178% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±523.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+178%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±523.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Connecticut is projected to rise about 178% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±523.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.004.5
20261.60.004.5
20271.60.004.5
20281.60.004.4
20291.50.004.4

Mallard Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Mallard in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buckingham2220221966
New Hartford720211994
Sherman520181980
Danbury420221971
Southington420241973
No Woodbury320111967
E Hartland219921971
Woodstock219961970
Westbrook220191974
Woodstock 2220172017
Granby219961988
Mystic120231973
Uncasville120191989
Willimantic120171974
Greenwich120071968
Warren120111973
Long Hill120191972
Mid Haddam120241973
New Hartford119871973

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.