BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in North Carolina has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+101%Since 1978
67Routes In State
44Years

Notable Mallard Trends in North Carolina

long arc increasecomputed index

Mallard has surged in North Carolina: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Mallard Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in North Carolina is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.18–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029
0.52Projected 2029 index
0.18–0.8695% range
±73.7%Backtest error
19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.490.150.83
20260.500.160.84
20270.500.170.84
20280.510.170.85
20290.520.180.86

Mallard Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Mallard in North Carolina.
Mattamuskeet1420071999
Myrtle Grove1020242005
Copeland1020172004
Mooresville819951981
Brevard620181979
Old Trap520232010
Congleton420222001
Jarvisburg 2420212001
Cypress Cr420062005
Hertford420241999
Waco420161994
Merrimon320191977
Kinston320101977
Newport320102001
Dortches320231998
Supply320152004
Broad Creek220092009
Speed220231993
Jordan219901990
Saxapahaw220171987
Washington220152006
Cayton220222022
Siloam220112005
French Broad River220122008
Jones Corner220042004

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.