BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in North Carolina has risen sharply: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+75%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has risen sharply in North Carolina: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Mallard Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in North Carolina is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.19–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in North Carolina is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.44 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.19–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.490.160.83
20270.500.160.84
20280.510.170.84
20290.510.180.85
20300.520.190.86

Mallard Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Mallard in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mattamuskeet1420071999
Myrtle Grove1020242005
Copeland1020172004
Cypress Lakes1020252017
Mooresville819951981
Brevard720251979
Old Trap520232010
Congleton420222001
Cypress Cr420062005
Cokesbury420251998
Hertford420241999
Waco420161994
Merrimon320191977
Kinston320101977
Newport320102001
Dortches320251998
Supply320152004
Broad Creek220092009
Speed220231993
Jordan219901990
Saxapahaw220171987
Washington220152006
Cayton220222022
Siloam220112005
French Broad River220122008

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.