BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard

AnatidaeWaterfowlAnas platyrhynchos

Mallard has risen sharply: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3,068RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Mallard

The ancestor of most domestic ducks and the most abundant duck in the world, the Mallard dabbles in wetlands, parks and farm ponds everywhere.

Size
19.5–25.5 in long, about 2.4 lb (50–65 cm, 1.1 kg)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Seeds, aquatic plants and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface.
Range
Recorded on 3,068 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 49 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Mallard TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has risen sharply in surveyed states: up 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.9–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.11.84.4
20263.11.84.4
20273.11.84.4
20283.21.94.5
20293.21.94.5

Where the Mallard Is Detected

BBS routes recording Mallard, sized by most recent count.

Mallard Population Trend by State

Mallard population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+91%196944
Alaska-67%197899
Arizona+42%197539
Arkansas-38%197219
California+135%1970184
Colorado-11%1970151
Connecticut-16%196819
Delaware+20%196915
Florida-38%198930
Georgia-39%198354
Idaho+28%197060
Illinois+249%1968100
Indiana+209%196964
Iowa+195%197037
Kansas-79%196952
Kentucky+147%197140
Louisiana-39%198920
Maine14×197252
Maryland+29%196874
Massachusetts+2%197029
Michigan+119%1968100
Minnesota+107%196990
Mississippi+867%197923
Missouri-28%197340
Montana-19%1970105
Nebraska+26%196965
Nevada+93%197035
New Hampshire+203%196826
New Jersey-51%196836
New Mexico-69%197346
New York-25%1968121
North Carolina+101%197867
North Dakota+317%196951
Ohio+9%196881
Oklahoma+152%197143
Oregon+86%1970112
Pennsylvania+1%1968126
Rhode Island+70%19716
South Carolina-31%197919
South Dakota-9%196964
Tennessee-69%196828
Texas+137%197182
Utah+433%197082
Vermont35×197024
Virginia+108%196946
Washington-4%197093
West Virginia+78%197150
Wisconsin-55%196898
Wyoming-2%1970127

Mallard Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Mallard population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-70%198521
BCR 3+10%20004
BCR 4-78%197851
Northern Pacific Rainforest+11%1970112
Great Basin+109%1970212
Northern Rockies+51%1970196
Prairie Potholes+161%1969122
Boreal Hardwood Transition+101%1968117
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+118%196884
Atlantic Northern Forest+362%1968121
Sierra Nevada+101%197327
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+130%1970182
Badlands and Prairies-52%1969133
Shortgrass Prairie-58%1969116
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-20%196998
Oaks and Prairies+3%198028
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+213%1968233
Prairie Hardwood Transition-41%1968161
Central Hardwoods+140%197087
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+15%197520
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-89%196837
Southeastern Coastal Plain+784%1968140
Appalachian Mountains+101%1968300
Piedmont-6%1968109
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-10%1968149
Peninsular Florida-61%199717
Coastal California+80%1970104
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+247%197428
Sierra Madre Occidental-63%197520
Chihuahuan Desert-60%198022
Gulf Coastal Prairie+236%198510

Mallard Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it up about 50% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.