Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Analysis

AnatidaeWaterfowlAnas platyrhynchos

Mallard has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the Mallard

The ancestor of most domestic ducks and the most abundant duck in the world, the Mallard dabbles in wetlands, parks and farm ponds everywhere.

Size
19.5–25.5 in long, about 2.4 lb (50–65 cm, 1.1 kg)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Seeds, aquatic plants and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface.
Range
Recorded on 3,087 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 49 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Mallard TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Mallard is projected to rise about 53% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.8–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.11.74.4
20273.11.74.4
20283.11.84.4
20293.11.84.4
20303.11.84.4

Where the Mallard Is Detected

BBS routes recording Mallard, sized by most recent count.

Mallard Population Trend by State

Mallard population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+37%196945
Alaska-72%197899
Arizona+130%197539
Arkansas-38%197219
California+204%1970185
Colorado-15%1970151
Connecticut-73%196819
Delaware+266%196915
Florida-63%198930
Georgia-39%198355
Idaho+4%197060
Illinois+208%1968100
Indiana+183%196964
Iowa+143%197037
Kansas-70%196952
Kentucky+133%197140
Louisiana-90%198920
Maine14×197252
Maryland-6%196874
Massachusetts+15%197029
Michigan+113%1968100
Minnesota+173%196990
Mississippi+846%197923
Missouri-20%197340
Montana-20%1970108
Nebraska+30%196966
Nevada+170%197036
New Hampshire+192%196826
New Jersey-47%196836
New Mexico-60%197347
New York-43%1968121
North Carolina+75%197867
North Dakota+228%196951
Ohio+15%196882
Oklahoma+414%197143
Oregon+102%1970115
Pennsylvania+3%1968126
Rhode Island-51%19716
South Carolina-31%197919
South Dakota-19%196964
Tennessee-51%196829
Texas+131%197184
Utah+457%197082
Vermont49×197024
Virginia+63%196947
Washington-10%197093
West Virginia+14%197150
Wisconsin-59%196898
Wyoming-12%1970129

Mallard Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Mallard population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-71%198521
BCR 3+10%20004
BCR 4-82%197851
Northern Pacific Rainforest-10%1970113
Great Basin+136%1970215
Northern Rockies+28%1970196
Prairie Potholes+118%1969122
Boreal Hardwood Transition+103%1968117
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+90%196884
Atlantic Northern Forest+452%1968121
Sierra Nevada+68%197327
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+145%1970182
Badlands and Prairies-49%1969138
Shortgrass Prairie-54%1969116
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-3%196999
Oaks and Prairies+170%198029
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+233%1968234
Prairie Hardwood Transition-46%1968161
Central Hardwoods+76%197088
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+15%197520
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-88%196837
Southeastern Coastal Plain+657%1968141
Appalachian Mountains+107%1968302
Piedmont-2%1968109
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-23%1968149
Peninsular Florida-78%199717
Coastal California+154%1970105
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts+168%197428
Sierra Madre Occidental-25%197520
Chihuahuan Desert-77%198023
Gulf Coastal Prairie-37%198510

Mallard Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it up about 46% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.