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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Mallard in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged up: up 11% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+11%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Mallard In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.84–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.84–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.84–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.803.5
20262.10.813.5
20272.20.823.5
20282.20.833.5
20292.20.843.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Mallard in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bay ViewWASHINGTON1362017
GlasgowOREGON332024
MukilteoWASHINGTON192024
RainierWASHINGTON162013
CoquilleOREGON152024
Sandy RiverOREGON132004
Fish RockCALIFORNIA122014
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA112019
HainesALASKA102024
Emigrant LkOREGON102001
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON102024
Port AngelesWASHINGTON82024
CamasWASHINGTON82009
CordovaALASKA72024
SaladoOREGON72011
SvensenOREGON71991
ClearwaterOREGON72021
ScappooseOREGON72022
SewardALASKA61992
SkagwayALASKA62024
SalemOREGON52024
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA42019
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA42024
ScioOREGON42012
DeceptionWASHINGTON42017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.