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Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Mallard in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
113Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Mallard In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.74–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.74–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 116% by 2030 — from 0.97 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.74–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.703.4
20272.10.713.4
20282.10.723.4
20292.10.733.5
20302.10.743.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Mallard in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bay ViewWASHINGTON1362017
GlasgowOREGON332024
RainierWASHINGTON162013
Sandy RiverOREGON132004
Fish RockCALIFORNIA122014
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA112019
Port AngelesWASHINGTON112025
TualatinOREGON102025
Emigrant LkOREGON102001
CamasWASHINGTON82009
CordovaALASKA72024
SaladoOREGON72011
SvensenOREGON71991
SewardALASKA61992
SkagwayALASKA62024
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA62025
HainesALASKA52025
SalemOREGON52024
JuneauALASKA42025
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA42019
ScioOREGON42012
CoquilleOREGON42025
MukilteoWASHINGTON42025
DeceptionWASHINGTON42017
ZaremboALASKA32014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.