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Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Mallard in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Mallard In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.44–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 0.44–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.00.659.3
20264.90.599.2
20274.90.549.2
20284.80.499.1
20294.80.449.1

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Mallard in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO841995
LockportOHIO622024
GraytownOHIO441984
KnappMINNESOTA412024
OmroWISCONSIN342001
N BaltimoreOHIO332019
HollandWISCONSIN332024
Le CenterMINNESOTA322016
St CharlesMICHIGAN312019
GlenwoodMINNESOTA302019
GalesburgMICHIGAN212024
KnoxINDIANA182019
New LondonMINNESOTA182024
KielWISCONSIN152022
PackertownINDIANA142004
EvergreenMINNESOTA132024
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN132024
Omro 2WISCONSIN132024
HatfieldWISCONSIN121994
PettysvilleMICHIGAN111979
UnityWISCONSIN112024
Stevens PtWISCONSIN112021
Columbia CtyINDIANA102024
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN101987
HudsonWISCONSIN102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.