BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWaterfowl

Mallard in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

-61%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Mallard In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±199.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.46
20260.180.000.46
20270.180.000.46
20280.180.000.45
20290.180.000.45

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Mallard in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San AntonioFLORIDA111989
Pleasant GrFLORIDA62007
Dale MabryFLORIDA31985
Myakka HeadFLORIDA32009
Polk CityFLORIDA32013
KissimmeeFLORIDA32022
SandyFLORIDA31998
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA32022
Vero BeachFLORIDA31997
ChildsFLORIDA22004
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22015
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA22021
Wildernes PkFLORIDA22013
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12021
Winter GardnFLORIDA12019
Citrus ParkFLORIDA12024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.