BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWaterfowl

Mallard in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

-61%Since 1997
17Routes In Region
27Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Mallard has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Peninsular Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±199.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.18Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.4595% range
±199.2%Backtest error
19852029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.180.000.46
20260.180.000.46
20270.180.000.46
20280.180.000.45
20290.180.000.45

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Mallard in Peninsular Florida.
San AntonioFLORIDA111989
Pleasant GrFLORIDA62007
Dale MabryFLORIDA31985
Myakka HeadFLORIDA32009
Polk CityFLORIDA32013
KissimmeeFLORIDA32022
SandyFLORIDA31998
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA32022
Vero BeachFLORIDA31997
ChildsFLORIDA22004
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22015
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA22021
Wildernes PkFLORIDA22013
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12021
Winter GardnFLORIDA12019
Citrus ParkFLORIDA12024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.