BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWaterfowl

Mallard in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

-78%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Mallard In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±211.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+88%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±211.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±211.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.44
20270.170.000.44
20280.170.000.44
20290.160.000.44
20300.160.000.44

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Mallard in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant GrFLORIDA62007
Dale MabryFLORIDA31985
Myakka HeadFLORIDA32009
Polk CityFLORIDA32013
KissimmeeFLORIDA32022
SandyFLORIDA31998
Vero BeachFLORIDA31997
ChildsFLORIDA22004
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22015
Myakka Head 2FLORIDA22021
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA22025
Wildernes PkFLORIDA22013
San AntonioFLORIDA12025
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12021
Winter GardnFLORIDA12019
Citrus ParkFLORIDA12024
Ridge HarborFLORIDA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.