BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaWaterfowl

Mallard in Coastal California has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+80%Since 1970
104Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Mallard has surged in Coastal California: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Coastal California is projected to rise about 110% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+110%Change by 2029
8.1Projected 2029 index
0.00–1695% range
±202.7%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20257.80.0016
20267.90.0016
20278.00.0016
20288.00.0016
20298.10.0016

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Mallard in Coastal California.
CoalingaCALIFORNIA1252012
CopperopolisCALIFORNIA932024
GlennCALIFORNIA292023
Harbor LakeCALIFORNIA271991
AthloneCALIFORNIA252007
MoragaCALIFORNIA192023
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA172012
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA132018
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA132022
GravesboroCALIFORNIA121995
PowayCALIFORNIA121980
AtwaterCALIFORNIA122012
Ora LomaCALIFORNIA122024
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA112019
Collegeville 2CALIFORNIA102023
ShafterCALIFORNIA91989
CoyoteCALIFORNIA92024
Staten Is.CALIFORNIA92024
South LakeCALIFORNIA92006
AnzaCALIFORNIA72004
MorenoCALIFORNIA62024
El ToroCALIFORNIA61999
Cp. PendletonCALIFORNIA61988
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA62024
SangerCALIFORNIA62023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.