BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWaterfowl

Mallard in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 657% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+657%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
141Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Mallard In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 66% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.21–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 66% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.21–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.180.51
20270.350.190.51
20280.360.190.52
20290.360.200.53
20300.370.210.53

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Mallard in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CorinthMISSISSIPPI152012
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA142007
MaconMISSISSIPPI132025
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA102024
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA102025
DeepstepGEORGIA82011
FinleysonGEORGIA82017
Grenada LakeMISSISSIPPI72016
NewsomsVIRGINIA72001
Mt. GileadALABAMA62006
St. ElmoALABAMA62007
WagenerSOUTH-CAROLINA62018
EpesALABAMA52024
HeliconALABAMA52015
Coffee CoGEORGIA52015
OwensboroGEORGIA52019
ShilohKENTUCKY52008
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA52023
WallsboroALABAMA42003
CalebeeALABAMA42009
Doctors Inlet 2FLORIDA42018
OusleyGEORGIA42022
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA42015
Okatibbee L.MISSISSIPPI41995
Cypress CrNORTH-CAROLINA42006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.