BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWaterfowl

Mallard in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 784% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+784%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
140Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 784% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.21–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.21–0.5395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.21–0.53). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.190.51
20260.350.190.52
20270.360.200.52
20280.370.200.53
20290.370.210.53

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Mallard in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaconMISSISSIPPI272024
CorinthMISSISSIPPI152012
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA142007
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA102024
DeepstepGEORGIA82011
FinleysonGEORGIA82017
Grenada LakeMISSISSIPPI72016
NewsomsVIRGINIA72001
Mt. GileadALABAMA62006
St. ElmoALABAMA62007
WagenerSOUTH-CAROLINA62018
EpesALABAMA52024
HeliconALABAMA52015
Coffee CoGEORGIA52015
OwensboroGEORGIA52019
ShilohKENTUCKY52008
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA52023
WallsboroALABAMA42003
CalebeeALABAMA42009
Doctors Inlet 2FLORIDA42018
OusleyGEORGIA42022
Pearl RiverLOUISIANA42015
Okatibbee L.MISSISSIPPI41995
Cypress CrNORTH-CAROLINA42006
HertfordNORTH-CAROLINA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.