BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWaterfowl

Mallard in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 362% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+362%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 362% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.87–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.87–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.87–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.791.9
20261.30.811.9
20271.40.831.9
20281.40.851.9
20291.40.871.9

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Mallard in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FletcherVERMONT752023
ManchesterMAINE421995
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS271994
LandgroveVERMONT172024
SpeculatorNEW-YORK122024
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE112024
Hope FallsNEW-YORK111995
MiddlesexVERMONT92023
GreenwoodMAINE82024
MckeeverNEW-YORK82018
NewcombNEW-YORK82022
New HartfordCONNECTICUT72021
TurnerMAINE62010
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK62016
BoundaryMAINE52015
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE51999
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE51974
HartfordMAINE42024
HarmonyMAINE42024
HermonMAINE42019
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE42013
WarrenMAINE31985
BrooksMAINE32013
HancockMAINE32024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE32015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.