BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertWaterfowl

Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-60%Since 1980
22Routes In Region
37Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Mallard has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 175% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±265.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+175%Change by 2029
0.28Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.395% range
±265.5%Backtest error
19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.330.001.3
20260.320.001.3
20270.310.001.3
20280.300.001.3
20290.280.001.3

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert.
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO161975
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO92022
Dove Mtn.TEXAS52004
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO42019
PresidioTEXAS32004
MarathonTEXAS32016
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO22024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22014
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22021
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
Black GapTEXAS22023
AltudaTEXAS22018
Devils R CynTEXAS21999
CanutilloTEXAS22022
Ft. DavisTEXAS22016
JornadaNEW-MEXICO11989
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12023
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO11993
ValentineTEXAS11985
Ft. StocktonTEXAS12018
ToyahvaleTEXAS11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.