BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertWaterfowl

Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-77%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Mallard In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±287.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+78%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±287.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 78% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±287.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.300.001.3
20270.290.001.3
20280.280.001.3
20290.260.001.3
20300.250.001.3

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO161975
Dove Mtn.TEXAS52004
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO42019
PresidioTEXAS32004
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO22024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22014
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22021
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
Black GapTEXAS22023
AltudaTEXAS22018
Devils R CynTEXAS21999
CanutilloTEXAS22022
Ft. DavisTEXAS22016
JornadaNEW-MEXICO11989
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12024
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12025
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO11993
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO12025
ValentineTEXAS11985
Ft. StocktonTEXAS12018
ToyahvaleTEXAS11998
MarathonTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.