BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertWaterfowl

Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-60%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Mallard In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 175% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±265.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+175%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±265.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 175% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.28 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±265.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.001.3
20260.320.001.3
20270.310.001.3
20280.300.001.3
20290.280.001.3

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Mallard in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO161975
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO92022
Dove Mtn.TEXAS52004
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO42019
PresidioTEXAS32004
MarathonTEXAS32016
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO22024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO22014
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22021
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
Black GapTEXAS22023
AltudaTEXAS22018
Devils R CynTEXAS21999
CanutilloTEXAS22022
Ft. DavisTEXAS22016
JornadaNEW-MEXICO11989
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12023
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO11993
ValentineTEXAS11985
Ft. StocktonTEXAS12018
ToyahvaleTEXAS11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.