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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWaterfowl

Mallard in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Mallard In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.22–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.22–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.214.0
20262.10.214.0
20272.10.214.0
20282.10.224.0
20292.10.224.0

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Mallard in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HamptonNEBRASKA142019
BartlettNEBRASKA131975
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA132024
KennedyNEBRASKA122024
Piester LakeNEBRASKA112024
NenzelNEBRASKA72024
ErickOKLAHOMA72021
KenesawNEBRASKA62024
SargentNEBRASKA62024
HanoverKANSAS51973
LoganKANSAS52019
StrattonNEBRASKA52024
AlmeriaNEBRASKA52000
Crescent LkNEBRASKA52017
CookietownOKLAHOMA51997
MisslerKANSAS42019
HodgesKANSAS42014
Swan LakeNEBRASKA42023
GordonNEBRASKA42024
BassettNEBRASKA42024
AshlandKANSAS32018
HaysKANSAS32008
TableNEBRASKA32024
ArthurNEBRASKA32024
RandlettOKLAHOMA32004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.