BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWaterfowl

Mallard in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+247%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Mallard In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.26–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+84%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.26–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.211.2
20260.700.221.2
20270.710.231.2
20280.730.251.2
20290.740.261.2

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Mallard in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrawleyCALIFORNIA102012
Parker DamCALIFORNIA92007
Cactus ForestARIZONA62024
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA62023
Palo VerdeARIZONA42013
ArabyARIZONA42023
Red RockARIZONA42014
Calif CityCALIFORNIA42012
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA32016
LagunaARIZONA22023
Cibola LakeARIZONA22014
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA22024
Hope 2ARIZONA22015
OnyxCALIFORNIA21998
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA21982
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA22006
PearblossomCALIFORNIA22024
Lone PineCALIFORNIA22007
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA22021
Alamo Res.ARIZONA12021
Casa GrandeARIZONA12022
Red Rock 2ARIZONA12019
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA12005
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA11989
Havasu LakeCALIFORNIA12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.