BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsWaterfowl

Mallard in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+247%Since 1974
28Routes In Region
41Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Mallard has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 247% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 84% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.26–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+84%Change by 2029
0.74Projected 2029 index
0.26–1.295% range
±51.3%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.690.211.2
20260.700.221.2
20270.710.231.2
20280.730.251.2
20290.740.261.2

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Mallard in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
BrawleyCALIFORNIA102012
Parker DamCALIFORNIA92007
Cactus ForestARIZONA62024
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA62023
Palo VerdeARIZONA42013
ArabyARIZONA42023
Red RockARIZONA42014
Calif CityCALIFORNIA42012
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA32016
LagunaARIZONA22023
Cibola LakeARIZONA22014
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA22024
Hope 2ARIZONA22015
OnyxCALIFORNIA21998
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA21982
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA22006
PearblossomCALIFORNIA22024
Lone PineCALIFORNIA22007
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA22021
Alamo Res.ARIZONA12021
Casa GrandeARIZONA12022
Red Rock 2ARIZONA12019
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA12005
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA11989
Havasu LakeCALIFORNIA12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.