BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Waterfowl

Mallard in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-78%Since 1978
51Routes In Region
45Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Mallard has collapsed in BCR 4: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 69% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2029
0.27Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.995% range
±55.1%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.380.002.0
20260.350.002.0
20270.330.002.0
20280.300.001.9
20290.270.001.9

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Mallard in BCR 4.
Bear CreekALASKA301991
CottonwoodALASKA231988
HomerALASKA151982
Porcupine R.ALASKA102001
DeltaALASKA82024
NebesnaALASKA71975
Nicholai SlALASKA72019
KachemakALASKA72024
Kanuti LakeALASKA62024
L SalchaALASKA42015
ToklatALASKA32013
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA32022
Unalakleet RiverALASKA32023
Mud RiverALASKA32024
Murphy DomeALASKA32005
CircleALASKA22000
MaclarenALASKA22021
Kenny LakeALASKA22021
SourdoughALASKA22023
ChickenALASKA22023
Burma RoadALASKA22004
ColdfootALASKA22023
Donelly DomeALASKA22024
Hather CreekALASKA22024
McgrathALASKA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.