Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Mallard In BCR 2
Mallard in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
-70%Since 1985
21Routes In Region
41Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Mallard has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1985.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-59%Change by 2029
0.72Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.695% range
±89.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 3.8 |
| 2026 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 3.7 |
| 2027 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 3.7 |
| 2028 | 0.78 | 0.00 | 3.6 |
| 2029 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 3.6 |
Routes In BCR 2
| Dillingham | ALASKA | 9 | 2019 |
| Cold Bay | ALASKA | 5 | 2024 |
| Chiniak | ALASKA | 4 | 2024 |
| Gweek River | ALASKA | 4 | 2002 |
| Kodiak 2 | ALASKA | 3 | 2024 |
| Goodnews Bay | ALASKA | 3 | 2005 |
| Kodiak | ALASKA | 2 | 1984 |
| Cape Nome | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| Council | ALASKA | 2 | 2024 |
| Togiak River | ALASKA | 2 | 2005 |
| Kotzebue | ALASKA | 2 | 2021 |
| Kugarak (Short) | ALASKA | 2 | 1986 |
| Katmai N.P. | ALASKA | 1 | 2000 |
| King Salmon | ALASKA | 1 | 2023 |
| Salmon Lake | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| St. Mary'S | ALASKA | 1 | 2011 |
| Teller | ALASKA | 1 | 2003 |
| Kanektok Riv | ALASKA | 1 | 2003 |
| Selawik (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 1987 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 1986 |
| Cold Bay (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 1992 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.