BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Mallard in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-70%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Mallard In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 59% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.003.8
20260.890.003.7
20270.830.003.7
20280.780.003.6
20290.720.003.6

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Mallard in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DillinghamALASKA92019
Cold BayALASKA52024
ChiniakALASKA42024
Gweek RiverALASKA42002
Kodiak 2ALASKA32024
Goodnews BayALASKA32005
KodiakALASKA21984
Cape NomeALASKA22024
CouncilALASKA22024
Togiak RiverALASKA22005
KotzebueALASKA22021
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA21986
Katmai N.P.ALASKA12000
King SalmonALASKA12023
Salmon LakeALASKA12017
St. Mary'SALASKA12011
TellerALASKA12003
Kanektok RivALASKA12003
Selawik (Short)ALASKA11987
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA11986
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.