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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasWaterfowl

Mallard in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+15%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Mallard In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±219.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±219.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±219.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.32
20260.100.000.32
20270.090.000.32
20280.090.000.32
20290.090.000.31

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Mallard in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McalesterOKLAHOMA121983
NatchitochesLOUISIANA111989
CypressLOUISIANA61987
ChandlerTEXAS62004
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA52000
HopeARKANSAS31990
PocolaOKLAHOMA31992
New WaverlyTEXAS31976
StampsARKANSAS22001
StarkARKANSAS21977
NanceARKANSAS22005
ZwolleLOUISIANA22012
NatchezLOUISIANA21996
IndianolaOKLAHOMA22004
AthensTEXAS22024
LongstreetLOUISIANA12010
PhillipsOKLAHOMA11973
MortonTEXAS12007
CrossroadsTEXAS12011
Chandler 2TEXAS12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.