BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+103%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.26–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 32% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.26–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.273.3
20271.80.273.3
20281.80.273.3
20291.80.273.3
20301.80.263.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MayfieldMICHIGAN412025
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN251992
BagleyMINNESOTA192006
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN172024
CathroMICHIGAN92016
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN81997
FloodwoodMINNESOTA82024
NebishMINNESOTA82025
HollisterWISCONSIN82024
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN71996
LudeMINNESOTA62023
Washington IWISCONSIN62025
Skegemog PtMICHIGAN52025
Brush CreekMICHIGAN52016
Sand LakeMICHIGAN52021
Island LakeMINNESOTA51995
GreenbushMINNESOTA52025
HermanMICHIGAN42022
Lake CityMICHIGAN42006
PickfordMICHIGAN42025
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN41993
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA42023
Mille LacsMINNESOTA42024
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA42023
Union TwpWISCONSIN42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.