BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.29–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.29–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.303.3
20261.80.303.3
20271.80.303.3
20281.80.293.3
20291.80.293.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN251992
BagleyMINNESOTA192006
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN172024
GilmanWISCONSIN112024
CathroMICHIGAN92016
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN81997
FloodwoodMINNESOTA82024
GreenbushMINNESOTA82024
HollisterWISCONSIN82024
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN71996
Rib LakeWISCONSIN72023
LudeMINNESOTA62023
IrmaWISCONSIN62024
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN52017
Brush CreekMICHIGAN52016
Sand LakeMICHIGAN52021
MayfieldMICHIGAN52022
Island LakeMINNESOTA51995
HermanMICHIGAN42022
Lake CityMICHIGAN42006
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN41993
CromwellMINNESOTA42022
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA42023
Mille LacsMINNESOTA42024
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.