BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968
117Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Mallard has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 50% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.29–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2029
1.8Projected 2029 index
0.29–3.395% range
±50.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.80.303.3
20261.80.303.3
20271.80.303.3
20281.80.293.3
20291.80.293.3

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Mallard in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN251992
BagleyMINNESOTA192006
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN172024
GilmanWISCONSIN112024
CathroMICHIGAN92016
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN81997
FloodwoodMINNESOTA82024
GreenbushMINNESOTA82024
HollisterWISCONSIN82024
Hubbard LakeMICHIGAN71996
Rib LakeWISCONSIN72023
LudeMINNESOTA62023
IrmaWISCONSIN62024
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN52017
Brush CreekMICHIGAN52016
Sand LakeMICHIGAN52021
MayfieldMICHIGAN52022
Island LakeMINNESOTA51995
HermanMICHIGAN42022
Lake CityMICHIGAN42006
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN41993
CromwellMINNESOTA42022
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA42023
Mille LacsMINNESOTA42024
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.