BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWaterfowl

Mallard in Great Basin has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+109%Since 1970
212Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Mallard has surged in Great Basin: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Great Basin is projected to rise about 81% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 1.2–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+81%Change by 2029
7.4Projected 2029 index
1.2–1495% range
±159.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20257.31.114
20267.31.114
20277.41.114
20287.41.114
20297.41.214

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Mallard in Great Basin.
DorrisCALIFORNIA1592019
LikelyCALIFORNIA1572024
Catlow RimOREGON552024
Twin ButtesIDAHO541999
UmatillaOREGON532023
Fish LakeOREGON512024
Bear RiverUTAH512023
GoshenUTAH502024
Cedar HillIDAHO402024
LeadoreIDAHO352024
BlyOREGON332001
YakimaWASHINGTON312024
MadelineCALIFORNIA252024
JosephOREGON252023
Pasadena ValIDAHO242016
ReardanWASHINGTON232022
MacdoelCALIFORNIA222019
Iron GateCALIFORNIA222019
Dobbin CreekNEVADA202016
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA182022
Warner VallyOREGON182024
Malheur NwrOREGON171998
PromontoryUTAH172023
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON162023
Barnes ValOREGON151987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.