BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalWaterfowl

Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-63%Since 1975
20Routes In Region
44Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Mallard has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 92% by 2028 — from 0.36 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2028
0.70Projected 2028 index
0.00–2.495% range
±155%Backtest error
19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.710.002.4
20250.710.002.4
20260.710.002.4
20270.700.002.4
20280.700.002.4

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental.
AlpineARIZONA72023
Mormon LakeARIZONA51975
AmadoARIZONA52014
PrescottARIZONA42019
BlueARIZONA31991
WilliamsARIZONA32006
PomereneARIZONA22011
PatagoniaARIZONA22010
Skull ValleyARIZONA22014
Carr MtnARIZONA22011
SprucedaleARIZONA22015
RuckerARIZONA22001
San SimonARIZONA11997
Peña BlancaARIZONA11984
SunizonaARIZONA11996
MaineARIZONA12023
PinetopARIZONA11995
CutterARIZONA11993
Happy JackARIZONA12016
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.