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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalWaterfowl

Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-63%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Mallard In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 92% by 2028 — from 0.36 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+92%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±155%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 92% by 2028 — from 0.36 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.710.002.4
20250.710.002.4
20260.710.002.4
20270.700.002.4
20280.700.002.4

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineARIZONA72023
Mormon LakeARIZONA51975
AmadoARIZONA52014
PrescottARIZONA42019
BlueARIZONA31991
WilliamsARIZONA32006
PomereneARIZONA22011
PatagoniaARIZONA22010
Skull ValleyARIZONA22014
Carr MtnARIZONA22011
SprucedaleARIZONA22015
RuckerARIZONA22001
San SimonARIZONA11997
Peña BlancaARIZONA11984
SunizonaARIZONA11996
MaineARIZONA12023
PinetopARIZONA11995
CutterARIZONA11993
Happy JackARIZONA12016
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.