BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalWaterfowl

Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-25%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Mallard In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±166%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.78Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±166%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.78 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±166%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.002.5
20270.790.002.5
20280.790.002.5
20290.780.002.5
20300.780.002.5

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Mallard in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlpineARIZONA422025
Mormon LakeARIZONA51975
AmadoARIZONA52014
PrescottARIZONA42019
BlueARIZONA31991
PomereneARIZONA22011
PatagoniaARIZONA22010
WilliamsARIZONA22025
Skull ValleyARIZONA22014
Carr MtnARIZONA22011
SprucedaleARIZONA22015
RuckerARIZONA22001
San SimonARIZONA11997
Peña BlancaARIZONA11984
SunizonaARIZONA11996
MaineARIZONA12023
PinetopARIZONA11995
CutterARIZONA11993
Happy JackARIZONA12016
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.