BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWaterfowl

Mallard in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mallard In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 242% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+242%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 242% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.000.69
20270.330.000.69
20280.330.000.69
20290.330.000.69
20300.330.000.69

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Mallard in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY202023
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA82008
PinevilleMISSOURI72004
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS61998
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY62003
GlenTENNESSEE62019
RupertARKANSAS51990
BirdsILLINOIS52022
MillerMISSOURI52018
CampbellsvilleTENNESSEE52006
Wheeler DamALABAMA42023
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY42004
TrianaALABAMA32008
CantonKENTUCKY32010
DixieKENTUCKY31973
PlumKENTUCKY32016
ReedsMISSOURI32006
HaydenMISSOURI32008
DiamondMISSOURI32015
SanduskyILLINOIS21993
PimentoINDIANA22022
BrazilINDIANA22025
SpencerINDIANA22006
WashingtonINDIANA22025
Clear SpringINDIANA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.