BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontWaterfowl

Mallard in Piedmont has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Piedmont. See the full index history below.

Mallard In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Piedmont is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.53Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Piedmont is projected to rise about 59% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.53 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.001.6
20260.570.001.6
20270.560.001.5
20280.540.001.5
20290.530.001.5

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Mallard in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AkronPENNSYLVANIA421997
AspersPENNSYLVANIA311989
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA112016
CopelandNORTH-CAROLINA102017
Sunny SideGEORGIA82017
MooresvilleNORTH-CAROLINA81995
ProsperitySOUTH-CAROLINA82024
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA72024
EphrataPENNSYLVANIA61988
CampobelloSOUTH-CAROLINA62023
Owings 2SOUTH-CAROLINA52010
Brandy StationVIRGINIA52021
MaxeysGEORGIA42011
HollonvilleGEORGIA42001
Hollonville 2GEORGIA42021
RandallstownMARYLAND41998
Van BibberMARYLAND42006
WacoNORTH-CAROLINA42016
Brick TavernPENNSYLVANIA42022
JacobusPENNSYLVANIA42017
LincolntonGEORGIA32006
JulietteGEORGIA32012
Kite LakeGEORGIA32019
Rock BranchGEORGIA32022
Upper XrdsMARYLAND32008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.