BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWaterfowl

Mallard in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+170%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 170% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Mallard In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 69% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.110.000.33
20270.110.000.33
20280.110.000.33
20290.110.000.32
20300.110.000.32

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Mallard in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WeatherfordTEXAS152025
GainesvilleTEXAS42004
Glen RoseTEXAS31997
GrafordTEXAS32015
AlbanyTEXAS31999
Thornton 3TEXAS32019
Blue RidgeTEXAS32017
GreenvilleTEXAS32017
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA21986
BeggsOKLAHOMA22016
NobleOKLAHOMA22021
Oak GroveTEXAS21976
GauseTEXAS21994
Peach CreekTEXAS21986
OlaTEXAS22007
DallasTEXAS22018
Miller GroveTEXAS22009
HenriettaTEXAS22022
CayugaTEXAS22025
BonnerTEXAS22008
BrucevilleTEXAS21995
DecaturTEXAS22012
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12019
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12009
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.