BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesWaterfowl

Mallard in Oaks and Prairies has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+3%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Mallard In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±122.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±122.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.29
20260.090.000.29
20270.080.000.29
20280.080.000.29
20290.080.000.28

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Mallard in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GainesvilleTEXAS42004
Glen RoseTEXAS31997
GrafordTEXAS32015
AlbanyTEXAS31999
Thornton 3TEXAS32019
Blue RidgeTEXAS32017
GreenvilleTEXAS32017
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA21986
BeggsOKLAHOMA22016
NobleOKLAHOMA22021
Oak GroveTEXAS21976
GauseTEXAS21994
Peach CreekTEXAS21986
OlaTEXAS22007
DallasTEXAS22018
Miller GroveTEXAS22009
HenriettaTEXAS22022
BonnerTEXAS22008
BrucevilleTEXAS21995
DecaturTEXAS22012
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12019
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12009
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12000
OsageTEXAS12003
WeatherfordTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.