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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWaterfowl

Mallard in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.001.2
20260.210.001.2
20270.190.001.2
20280.170.001.2
20290.160.001.2

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Mallard in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CommerceMISSISSIPPI81988
MayflowerLOUISIANA71989
HughesARKANSAS62019
ShawLOUISIANA61996
PawpawTENNESSEE62009
BrousvilleLOUISIANA52012
SaffellARKANSAS42000
Augusta 2ARKANSAS42011
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE42019
DellARKANSAS32024
UlmARKANSAS32012
IsolaMISSISSIPPI32021
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI32019
HaytiMISSOURI32019
South BendARKANSAS22018
WhittonARKANSAS21991
WilsonARKANSAS22024
BardwellKENTUCKY22000
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY22007
RoselandLOUISIANA22008
FloydLOUISIANA21991
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA22000
River RoadLOUISIANA22017
Baton RougeLOUISIANA22021
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI21996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.