BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWaterfowl

Mallard in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-89%Since 1968
37Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Mallard has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 89% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 42% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2029
0.16Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.295% range
±82%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.230.001.2
20260.210.001.2
20270.190.001.2
20280.170.001.2
20290.160.001.2

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Mallard in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
CommerceMISSISSIPPI81988
MayflowerLOUISIANA71989
HughesARKANSAS62019
ShawLOUISIANA61996
PawpawTENNESSEE62009
BrousvilleLOUISIANA52012
SaffellARKANSAS42000
Augusta 2ARKANSAS42011
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE42019
DellARKANSAS32024
UlmARKANSAS32012
IsolaMISSISSIPPI32021
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI32019
HaytiMISSOURI32019
South BendARKANSAS22018
WhittonARKANSAS21991
WilsonARKANSAS22024
BardwellKENTUCKY22000
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY22007
RoselandLOUISIANA22008
FloydLOUISIANA21991
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA22000
River RoadLOUISIANA22017
Baton RougeLOUISIANA22021
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI21996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.