Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Mallard In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
Mallard in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
+118%Since 1968
84Routes In Region
58Years
Notable Signals
long arc increasecomputed index
Mallard has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.59–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+65%Change by 2029
3.2Projected 2029 index
0.59–5.895% range
±100.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.1 | 0.51 | 5.7 |
| 2026 | 3.1 | 0.53 | 5.8 |
| 2027 | 3.2 | 0.55 | 5.8 |
| 2028 | 3.2 | 0.57 | 5.8 |
| 2029 | 3.2 | 0.59 | 5.8 |
Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
| Wayland | OHIO | 59 | 2016 |
| Macdougall | NEW-YORK | 28 | 2024 |
| Highland | NEW-YORK | 23 | 2022 |
| West Bangor | NEW-YORK | 17 | 1998 |
| Grand Isle | VERMONT | 15 | 2024 |
| Parishville | NEW-YORK | 12 | 2024 |
| Waddington | NEW-YORK | 9 | 1998 |
| Romulus | NEW-YORK | 8 | 2000 |
| Cayuga | NEW-YORK | 7 | 2016 |
| Clinton | NEW-YORK | 7 | 2011 |
| Harris Hill | NEW-YORK | 7 | 2022 |
| Branchport | NEW-YORK | 6 | 2024 |
| Hamburg | NEW-YORK | 6 | 2023 |
| West Seneca | NEW-YORK | 6 | 2004 |
| Hopkinton | NEW-YORK | 6 | 2019 |
| Lattasburg | OHIO | 6 | 2019 |
| New Somerset | OHIO | 6 | 1993 |
| Trumansburg | NEW-YORK | 5 | 2024 |
| Penfield | NEW-YORK | 5 | 2024 |
| N Victory 2 | NEW-YORK | 5 | 2013 |
| Slippery Rk | PENNSYLVANIA | 5 | 1993 |
| Strongsville | OHIO | 4 | 1995 |
| Lenox | OHIO | 4 | 2017 |
| Hiram | OHIO | 4 | 2021 |
| Hinesburg | VERMONT | 4 | 1991 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.