BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainWaterfowl

Mallard in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 144% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.43–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+144%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±139.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 144% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.43–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±139.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.00.375.6
20273.00.395.7
20283.00.405.7
20293.10.425.7
20303.10.435.7

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Mallard in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WaylandOHIO592016
HighlandNEW-YORK232022
West BangorNEW-YORK171998
WaddingtonNEW-YORK91998
RomulusNEW-YORK82000
ParishvilleNEW-YORK82025
CayugaNEW-YORK72016
ClintonNEW-YORK72011
HiramOHIO72025
Grand IsleVERMONT72025
BranchportNEW-YORK62024
West SenecaNEW-YORK62004
HopkintonNEW-YORK62019
Herner CrnsOHIO62025
LattasburgOHIO62019
New SomersetOHIO61993
MacdougallNEW-YORK52025
TrumansburgNEW-YORK52024
N Victory 2NEW-YORK52013
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA51993
StrongsvilleOHIO41995
LenoxOHIO42017
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA42025
HinesburgVERMONT41991
Ballston LkNEW-YORK31994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.