BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Mallard in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+145%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
182Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mallard In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.1–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.1–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.81.04.6
20272.81.04.6
20282.91.14.6
20292.91.14.7
20302.91.14.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Mallard in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VernalUTAH942018
Alton 2UTAH742025
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO382024
Mcphee Res.COLORADO352025
M Warner ResUTAH292025
PiedraCOLORADO202025
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO172025
ClevelandUTAH152019
TarryallCOLORADO142025
AlamosaCOLORADO132025
DulceNEW-MEXICO112025
Grizzly RdgeUTAH102024
BicknellUTAH102021
WaldenCOLORADO92025
BoulderUTAH92025
BrookhurstWYOMING92016
WarbonnetWYOMING92025
ColonaCOLORADO82014
Blackhead PkCOLORADO82025
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO82025
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO81991
AltonUTAH82019
KamasUTAH72025
CortezCOLORADO62008
ThomasvilleCOLORADO62007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.