BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Mallard in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+130%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
182Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 130% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Mallard In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 1.1–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.9 (95% range 1.1–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.04.6
20262.91.04.7
20272.91.14.7
20282.91.14.7
20292.91.14.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Mallard in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VernalUTAH942018
Mcphee Res.COLORADO902024
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO382024
Alton 2UTAH352024
DinosaurCOLORADO332024
Dixie NfUTAH222024
KamasUTAH202024
ClevelandUTAH152019
AlamosaCOLORADO122024
Navajo LakeUTAH122024
HarmonyCOLORADO112024
Grizzly RdgeUTAH102024
BicknellUTAH102021
BrookhurstWYOMING92016
ColonaCOLORADO82014
San LuisCOLORADO82024
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO81991
AltonUTAH82019
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO72024
CortezCOLORADO62008
ThomasvilleCOLORADO62007
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO62021
FerronUTAH62022
Peach SpringARIZONA52024
FalfaCOLORADO52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.