BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Mallard in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-49%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
138Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Mallard In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.1–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 1.1–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.41.37.6
20274.41.27.5
20284.31.27.5
20294.31.17.4
20304.21.17.4

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Mallard in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WinnettMONTANA672025
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA572025
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA532015
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA452015
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA422015
KayceeWYOMING352025
WyarnoWYOMING322025
IngomarMONTANA302025
St XavierMONTANA252010
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA252022
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA202023
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA172024
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA162025
ClarkelenWYOMING161978
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA142025
RecluseWYOMING132024
RozetWYOMING122025
JordanMONTANA112024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA112011
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA112019
WinifredMONTANA102023
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA102025
PineyWYOMING101987
Reed PointMONTANA92024
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA92015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.