BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWaterfowl

Mallard in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968
300Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Mallard has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.51–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.51–1.895% range
±112.6%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.491.7
20261.10.491.7
20271.10.501.8
20281.10.501.8
20291.10.511.8

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Mallard in Appalachian Mountains.
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA322021
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA312021
CartersvilleGEORGIA252018
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA171978
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA172009
RydePENNSYLVANIA162005
Warwick 2NEW-YORK152013
SmithsburgMARYLAND132014
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA122024
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA111977
Signal MtnTENNESSEE112014
OdinPENNSYLVANIA102017
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA101999
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE102023
StanleyVIRGINIA102024
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA101996
OldtownMARYLAND91978
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA92024
RiversideALABAMA82013
WarwickNEW-YORK81973
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA82024
Bow BridgePENNSYLVANIA82021
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA82014
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA82024
MartinsburgPENNSYLVANIA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.