BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWaterfowl

Mallard in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
300Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.51–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 93% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.51–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.491.7
20261.10.491.7
20271.10.501.8
20281.10.501.8
20291.10.511.8

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Mallard in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA322021
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA312021
CartersvilleGEORGIA252018
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA171978
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA172009
RydePENNSYLVANIA162005
Warwick 2NEW-YORK152013
SmithsburgMARYLAND132014
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA122024
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA111977
Signal MtnTENNESSEE112014
OdinPENNSYLVANIA102017
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA101999
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE102023
StanleyVIRGINIA102024
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA101996
OldtownMARYLAND91978
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA92024
RiversideALABAMA82013
WarwickNEW-YORK81973
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA82024
Bow BridgePENNSYLVANIA82021
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA82014
WilliamsburgPENNSYLVANIA82024
MartinsburgPENNSYLVANIA72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.