BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWaterfowl

Mallard in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+107%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
302Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Mallard In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.46–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 0.59 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.46–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.441.7
20271.10.451.7
20281.10.451.7
20291.10.461.7
20301.10.461.7

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Mallard in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CartersvilleGEORGIA252018
RavensburgPENNSYLVANIA171978
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA172009
RydePENNSYLVANIA162005
Warwick 2NEW-YORK152013
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA152025
SmithsburgMARYLAND132014
Doubling GapPENNSYLVANIA111977
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA112025
WilliamsportMARYLAND102025
OdinPENNSYLVANIA102017
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA101999
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA102025
Allens BrdgeTENNESSEE102023
SmithfieldWEST-VIRGINIA101996
OldtownMARYLAND91978
Pocono SummitPENNSYLVANIA92025
RiversideALABAMA82013
WarwickNEW-YORK81973
Bow BridgePENNSYLVANIA82021
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA82014
StanleyVIRGINIA82025
BrevardNORTH-CAROLINA72025
McdonaldWEST-VIRGINIA72010
Pine GroveALABAMA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.