BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWaterfowl

Mallard in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has edged down: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Mallard In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 128% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.06–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+128%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 128% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.06–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.085.6
20262.80.075.6
20272.80.075.6
20282.80.075.6
20292.80.065.6

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Mallard in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND412018
Mt MiseryNEW-JERSEY341989
HuntingtonNEW-YORK312023
WilmingtonDELAWARE232014
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE232023
BuckinghamCONNECTICUT222022
StraffordNEW-HAMPSHIRE182024
Bethany BchDELAWARE151990
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS151983
HongaMARYLAND142024
Fair HillMARYLAND131996
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY122024
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY122012
Mt PleasantDELAWARE102019
PurdyNEW-YORK102016
BeltsvilleMARYLAND92012
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS92018
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS91994
HolmansvilleNEW-JERSEY92009
QuinbyVIRGINIA92004
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE82024
Block IslandRHODE-ISLAND82010
La PlataMARYLAND72009
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND62017
Island CreekMARYLAND62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.