BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Mallard in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-58%Since 1969
116Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Mallard has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2029
2.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.895% range
±132.7%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.40.004.9
20262.40.004.9
20272.40.004.8
20282.30.004.8
20292.30.004.8

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mallard in Shortgrass Prairie.
Wildhorse LCOLORADO202024
LeotiKANSAS202017
PaxtonNEBRASKA172016
ClaytonvilleTEXAS132022
KiowaCOLORADO122018
ChampionNEBRASKA112018
BoyeroCOLORADO102010
StonehamCOLORADO102021
HaswellCOLORADO102022
BereaNEBRASKA102019
Arsenal 2COLORADO92023
PostTEXAS92024
PantexTEXAS92024
BethuneCOLORADO82017
ClovisNEW-MEXICO82016
NunnCOLORADO62021
JulesburgCOLORADO62021
KarvalCOLORADO62019
PritchettCOLORADO62008
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA62024
WakaTEXAS62024
DoughertyTEXAS62024
TwichellTEXAS62023
Mica ButteCOLORADO51987
GroverCOLORADO52023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.