BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Mallard in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+116%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±132.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 116% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±132.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.40.004.9
20262.40.004.9
20272.40.004.8
20282.30.004.8
20292.30.004.8

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Mallard in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wildhorse LCOLORADO202024
LeotiKANSAS202017
PaxtonNEBRASKA172016
ClaytonvilleTEXAS132022
KiowaCOLORADO122018
ChampionNEBRASKA112018
BoyeroCOLORADO102010
StonehamCOLORADO102021
HaswellCOLORADO102022
BereaNEBRASKA102019
Arsenal 2COLORADO92023
PostTEXAS92024
PantexTEXAS92024
BethuneCOLORADO82017
ClovisNEW-MEXICO82016
NunnCOLORADO62021
JulesburgCOLORADO62021
KarvalCOLORADO62019
PritchettCOLORADO62008
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA62024
WakaTEXAS62024
DoughertyTEXAS62024
TwichellTEXAS62023
Mica ButteCOLORADO51987
GroverCOLORADO52023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.