BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Mallard in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+161%Since 1969
122Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Mallard has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 20–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029
33Projected 2029 index
20–4695% range
±36%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025321945
2026321945
2027332046
2028332046
2029332046

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Mallard in Prairie Potholes.
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA1961984
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA1382024
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA1372023
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA922024
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA862021
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA852024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA742024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA692014
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA682024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA672024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA612023
Big StoneMINNESOTA592012
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA522024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA512009
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA492024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA472024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA472022
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA472024
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA452024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA452024
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA442024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA432024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA412024
MaynardMINNESOTA402014
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA402024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.