BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesWaterfowl

Mallard in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+161%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Mallard has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 161% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Mallard In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 20–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+62%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 62% by 2029 — from 21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 20–46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025321945
2026321945
2027332046
2028332046
2029332046

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Mallard in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA1961984
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA1382024
GettysburgSOUTH-DAKOTA1372023
NilesNORTH-DAKOTA922024
RaymondSOUTH-DAKOTA862021
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA852024
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA742024
DanzigNORTH-DAKOTA692014
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA682024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA672024
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA612023
Big StoneMINNESOTA592012
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA522024
LakotaNORTH-DAKOTA512009
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA492024
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA472024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA472022
Lakota 2NORTH-DAKOTA472024
WebsterNORTH-DAKOTA452024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA452024
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA442024
WimbledonNORTH-DAKOTA432024
WilmotSOUTH-DAKOTA412024
MaynardMINNESOTA402014
RollaNORTH-DAKOTA402024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.