BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Mallard In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesWaterfowl

Mallard in Northern Rockies has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+51%Since 1970
196Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Mallard has risen sharply in Northern Rockies: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.56–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029
2.8Projected 2029 index
0.56–5.095% range
±46.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.80.585.0
20262.80.575.0
20272.80.575.0
20282.80.565.0
20292.80.565.0

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Mallard in Northern Rockies.
Rock RiverWYOMING612022
NaplesIDAHO502024
YellowstoneWYOMING412022
Heart ButteMONTANA252019
Hayden ValWYOMING251986
Seedskadee 2WYOMING242024
AnchorWYOMING212016
ClarkWYOMING192010
CascadeIDAHO181984
Pablo Res.MONTANA172024
Hebgen LakeMONTANA162024
SpartaOREGON162001
RandolphUTAH162024
PathfinderWYOMING152022
Neponset ResUTAH142018
LovellWYOMING142018
Saleratus CrUTAH132017
E. Bear LakeUTAH122022
DanielWYOMING121988
BaggsWYOMING122004
FarsonWYOMING112018
MadrasOREGON102022
ShirleyWYOMING102008
CabartonIDAHO92022
Crawford MtsUTAH92015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.