BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Mallard Population Trend in Georgia

All statesWaterfowl

Mallard in Georgia has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

-39%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Mallard Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Mallard in Georgia. See the full index history below.

Mallard Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Georgia is projected to rise about 174% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±447.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+174%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±447.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Mallard in Georgia is projected to rise about 174% by 2030 — from 0.14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±447.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.000.77
20270.360.000.77
20280.370.000.78
20290.370.000.78
20300.370.000.78

Mallard Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Mallard in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cartersville2520181999
Deepstep820111997
Finleyson820171993
Sunny Side820172009
Amos Mill620122012
Coffee Co520151993
Owensboro520192012
Yates Crossroads520252010
Maxeys420111990
Hollonville420011974
Ousley420222022
Hollonville 2420212021
Lyons319941994
Wrightsville319811981
Lincolnton320061990
Riceboro319951995
Juliette320121991
Wadley319991999
Rock Branch320222022
Baxley219871987
Cuthbert220041993
Fairplay219851985
Athens220232009
Henderson220161992
Jacksonboro219901990

Mallard Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.