Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
American Black Duck Population Trend in Massachusetts
American Black Duck in Massachusetts has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-93%Since 1968
21Routes In State
44Years
Notable American Black Duck Trends in Massachusetts
long arc declinecomputed index
American Black Duck has collapsed in Massachusetts: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
American Black Duck Population Forecast in Massachusetts
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 100% by 2026 — from 0.05 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±390.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-100%Change by 2026
0.00Projected 2026 index
0.00–0.9195% range
±390.4%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| 2023 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| 2024 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
American Black Duck Survey Routes in Massachusetts
| Marion | 20 | 1981 | 1967 |
| Chilmark | 7 | 1973 | 1971 |
| E Dennis | 5 | 2010 | 1968 |
| Wellfleet | 2 | 1977 | 1970 |
| Brockton | 2 | 1998 | 1967 |
| Newburyport | 2 | 2017 | 1967 |
| Littleton | 2 | 2009 | 1968 |
| Princeton | 2 | 1971 | 1971 |
| S Barre | 2 | 1976 | 1968 |
| Prattville | 1 | 2014 | 1966 |
| Maynard | 1 | 1968 | 1967 |
| E Pepperell | 1 | 1978 | 1967 |
| Belchertown | 1 | 2019 | 2010 |
| N Orange | 1 | 1995 | 1971 |
| Cummington | 1 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Cheshire | 1 | 1993 | 1970 |
| Pittsfield | 1 | 1978 | 1969 |
| Sheffield | 1 | 1978 | 1974 |
| Gay Head | 1 | 2003 | 2003 |
| Wellfleet 2 | 1 | 2021 | 2021 |
| Holden | 1 | 1977 | 1977 |
American Black Duck Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.