BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

American Black Duck Population Trend in New York

All statesWaterfowl

American Black Duck in New York has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable American Black Duck Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

American Black Duck has collapsed in New York: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

American Black Duck Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.05 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±647.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±647.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, American Black Duck in New York is projected to fall about 100% by 2027 — from 0.05 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±647.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.33
20240.000.000.33
20250.000.000.33
20260.000.000.33
20270.000.000.33

American Black Duck Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording American Black Duck in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Branchport1419701970
West Bangor1019981998
Ballston Lk919831968
S Berne919781977
Blue Ridge S820081992
Blue Ridge N720101986
Old Forge619761976
E Newark519961996
Highmarket519901990
Fowler519681968
Salem419821967
Warrensburg419921992
Huntington320221966
Jones Beach320051966
Ghent319731973
N Wilmurt319971969
Westhampton219981968
Bedford219801980
Highland220062002
Petersburg219891969
Oriskany Fls219681968
Macdougall219771977
Hamburg219731973
West Seneca219721967
Centerville220062006

American Black Duck Population Trend in Other States

alabamaconnecticutdelawareindianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.